A Mathematical Model for the Transmission of Endemic Malaria under Periodically varying Climatic Conditions

Abstract

Malaria transmission is strongly determined by a combination of environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall and humidity which are rarely constant. Therefore, mosquitoes and malaria-causing parasites are not only exposed to the mean climatic conditions, but also to daily and seasonal variation which may be periodic in nature. The formulated model incorporates periodically fluctuating temperature and rainfall which is analyzed and simulated. In low transmission areas, endemic equilibrium is possible during the wet seasons which emphasize the importance of proper timing in implementation of intervention strategies.