An Assessment of The Effectiveness of IGAD-Led Mediation in The Political Conflict in South Sudan, 2013–2023

Abstract

This study evaluated the effectiveness of IGAD-led mediation in resolving the political conflict in South Sudan between 2013 and 2023. It specifically examined the strategies employed, the challenges encountered, and the overall impact of IGAD’s interventions on peace and political stability. Despite sustained regional and international engagement, South Sudan continues to experience recurring cycles of violence and fragile peace agreements since the outbreak of the civil war in 2013. The study was guided by three objectives: to assess the impact of IGAD’s intervention on the peace process and political stability; to analyze the mediation strategies and mechanisms employed during the 2013 crisis; and to evaluate the challenges IGAD faced in facilitating peace. A descriptive mixed-methods research design was adopted, relying primarily on qualitative data supplemented by quantitative findings. Primary data were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key informants and questionnaires administered to stakeholders involved in or affected by the mediation process. Secondary data sources included IGAD reports, academic literature, and relevant policy documents. The study was anchored in Identity-Based Conflict Theory and Transitional Justice Theory, which informed the conceptual framework. The findings revealed that IGAD played a critical convening role in brokering the 2015 and 2018 peace agreements and halting large-scale violence. However, its mediation efforts were undermined by internal divisions among member states, weak enforcement mechanisms, and an elite-driven process that excluded women, youth, and civil society. While IGAD effectively utilized high-level diplomacy and multilateral coordination, these strategies were constrained by limited resources, logistical challenges, and a lack of adequate political will among South Sudanese leaders. The study concludes that IGAD’s mediation achieved significant short-term gains but fell short of fostering sustainable peace and reconciliation. It recommends enhancing inclusivity, operational autonomy, and enforcement capacity, while institutionalizing transitional justice mechanisms. Further research should investigate the long-term effects of elite-driven mediation, regional political dynamics, and comparative analyses with other African-led peace initiatives to identify more effective, locally grounded models for achieving durable peace.