Otoi-NARIMA Model for Forecast Seasonality of COVID-19 Waves: Case of Kenya

Abstract

Kenya has experienced three COVID-19 waves which left authorities mandated to do disease surveillance and estimate the burden of disease in a complex and uncertain environment with citizens’ trust in institutions wavering having lost jobs and incomes. The citizens’ vulnerability worsened with inability to connect to social support when each household wellbeing and financial ability came under threat causing much anxiety about the future. Mathematical modelling of the spread of disease ninforms surveillance, planning, budgeting, and response to save lives and livelihoods. In that regard, accuracy of predictions and forecasts is highly desirable. The length of duration of COVID-19 waves, the likely start and end dates, and the number of daily infections need to be estimated with precision. These inform and provide a window for authorities working in a holistic and integrated manner with researchers and experts to protect people especially the most vulnerable populations and communities to fully acquire WHO approved vaccines before the subsequent forecasted period of COVID-19 waves.